Will WiFi and WiMax Laptops Spell the Death of the Desktop PC?

Posted Feb 9th 2006 6:33PM by Brian White
Filed under: WiFi, WiMax, MAN - muni, Hardware, Applications, Business

With even $500 entry-level laptop PCs coming with WiFi (802.11b, but so?) built in, and with folks on the move more and more, and with WiFi hotspots and municipal wireless being all the rage (and sure to increase expenentially), is the standard "beige box" PC and flat-screen TFT monitor - and those clunky CRTs - going the way of the dinosaur soon for the most part? Call it a paradign shift *if* it happens. There are still many advantages of a desktop over a laptop, but are they enough for the mainstream?

There will always be a need for super-powered desktop PCs - pick your OS - for graphics work, publishing, and other very intensive tasks that demand the latest hardware speeds (which are hard to find in many mainstream laptops). But, with the proliferation of ever-decreasing laptop PC prices and WiFi everywhere - if not WiMax soon - would the PC industry be glad to see the desktop PC of old go away?
A big, resounding YES would be my guess, as desktop PCs probably are the lowest-margin business in all of the electronics world, having long since passed commodity status (thanks, Micro$oft). After all, Dell makes money at extreme manufacturing efficiency and operational nimbleness, not by the padded margins in the desktop PC biz.

So, the CEOs of PC makers are probably wanting the proliferation of WiFi in all its forms to flourish dramtically, so they can make more margin-heavy portable PCs (laptops, PDA convergence devices) and cease the dragging-on-bottom-earnings desktop PC business. After all, HP's disastrous purchase of Compaq years ago was caused in part by not being able to wring appropriate savings from the desktop PC business. Ans that was over three years ago...

Reader Comments

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1. I don't think that desktop PCs will vanish. It's not correct to compare PC and laptop. They are different. Laptops are easy to take in the jorney, while desktop PCs are the best choice for home/office usage.

Posted at 7:15AM on Feb 10th 2006 by Hp

2. Re: Hp - For many consumer segments, a modern laptop makes more sense as a 'home' PC than a desktop. There are certainly some tasks that require the manipulation of very large data sets, or the transformation of large files using sophisticated algorithms, but for a sizeable percentage of the consumer market these aren't a concern.

My take on this is that the 'mobility' of a laptop will superseed all other purchasing criteria for many consumers, assuming several other elements are in place - wireless coverage, and a separate data store.

I can forsee a future where the prevalent consumer computing scenario is based around a laptop, WAN/WLAN coverage, and a place to store and backup data (whether using something like a Mirra box, or an integrated, hosted file store, or through a combination of web services like Flickr).

For those with more challenging computing requirements, a desktop/workstation could continue to fit the bill , but a laptop and distributed web services apps might be a more convenient solution.

And I'm not the only person thinking along these lines, check out this open position on the Windows Vista launch team.

j

Posted at 1:47PM on Feb 12th 2006 by jason

3. Advantages of desktop:
-performance
-upgrades & enhancements

Advantages of laptop:
-convenient to use anywhere in your home
-takes less space
-low power consumption, noise and heat dissipation

I don't think the wireless option will be critical, because you can usually connect your laptop via ethernet at home, at the office or when visiting friends. You should also notice that a laptop is rather bulky for a mobile device, so the WLAN scenario is probably much more important for smaller mobile devices like internet tablets.

Desktops are practically necessary for some applications which are important for the mainstream as well: 3D gaming, video editing, running the next version of MS Windows&Office affordably when it comes out...

Because both types have their advantages, PC enthusiasts will probably use both at their home. Upper middle class people often get a laptop from work which they can use at home. Families often have multiple people that may want to use a computer, but have different needs, so that is one more reason to acquire both a desktop and a laptop.

Posted at 7:48AM on Feb 13th 2006 by Varis

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